Predictions for 2019

Predictions(prəˈdikSH(ə)n) for 2019

By Isaac(ˈīˌzək) Asimov

Originally(əˈrijənl-ē) published Dec. 31(thirty first), 1983

lf we look into the world as it may be at the end of another generation, let’s say 2019 — that’s 35 years from now, the same number of years since 1949 when George(jôrj) Orwell’s(ˈôrwel) 1984 was first published — three considerations must dominate(ˈdäməˌnāt) our thoughts:

  1. Nuclear(ˈn(y)o͞oklēər) war. 2. Computerization(kəmˈpyo͞odəˌrīz). 3. Space(spās) utilization(ˌyo͞odələˈzāSH(ə)n, ˌyo͞odəˌlīˈzāSH(ə)n).

If the United States and the Soviet(-ˌet,ˈsōvēit) Union(ˈyo͞onyən) flail(flāl) away at each other at any time between now and 2019, there is absolutely(ˌabsəˈlo͞otlē) no use to discussing what life will be like in that year. Too few of us, or of our children and grandchildren, will be alive(əˈlīv) then for there to be any point in describing(dəˈskrīb) the precise(priˈsīs) condition(kənˈdiSHən) of global(ˈɡlōbəl) misery(ˈmiz(ə)rē) at that time.

Let us, therefore, assume(əˈso͞om) there will be no nuclear war — not necessarily(ˌnesəˈse(ə)rəlē) a safe assumption(əˈsəm(p)SHən) — and carry(ˈkarē) on from there.

Computerization will undoubtedly(ˌənˈdoudədlē) continue onward inevitably(inˈevitəblē). Computers have already made themselves essential(əˈsen(t)SHəl) to the governments of the industrial(inˈdəstrēəl) nations, and to world industry: and it is now beginning to make itself comfortable in the home.

An essential side product, the mobile computerized object, or robot, is already flooding(fləd) into industry and will, in the course of the next generation, penetrate(ˈpenəˌtrāt) the home.

There is bound to be resistance(riˈzistəns) to the march(märCH) of the computers, but barring(ˈbäriNG) a successful Luddite(ˈlədˌīt) revolution(ˌrevəˈlo͞oSHən), which does not seem in the cards, the march will continue.

The growing complexity(kəmˈpleksitē) of society(səˈsīədē) will make it impossible to do without them, except by courting(kôrt) chaos(ˈkāˌäs); and those parts of the world that fall behind in this respect(rəˈspekt) will suffer so obviously(ˈäbvēəslē) as a result that their ruling(ˈro͞oliNG) bodies will clamour(ˈklamər) for computerization as they now clamour for weapons(ˈwepən).

The immediate(iˈmēdēət) effect(əˈfekt) of intensifying(inˈtensəˌfī) computerization will be, of course, to change utterly(ˈədərlē) our work habits. This has happened before.

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https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html