We’re Not Ready for a Flu(flo͞o) Pandemic(panˈdemik)

We’re Not Ready for a Flu(flo͞o) Pandemic(panˈdemik)

By Michaiel T. Osterholm and Mark Olshaker

The influenza(ˌinflo͞oˈenzə) season is just getting started in the United States, and it already promises(ˈpräməs) to be more severe(səˈvi(ə)r) than usual(ˈyo͞oZHo͞oəl). Hospital emergency(iˈmərjənsē) rooms are filling up with flu sufferers(ˈsəfər), and pharmacies(ˈfärməsē) have reported medicine(ˈmedisən) shortages(ˈSHôrtij). Twelve children had died as of last month(mənTH). To make matters worse, in Australia(ôˈstrālyə,əˈstrāl-), which experienced(ikˈspi(ə)rēənst) its flu season four to six months ago, the current vaccine(vakˈsēn) appeared(əˈpi(ə)r) to be only about 10 percent effective(iˈfektiv) against this year’s dominant(ˈdämənənt) strain(strān).

Yet as bad as this winter’s epidemic(ˌepiˈdemik) is, it won’t compare with the flu pandemic that is almost certainly(ˈsərtnlē) on the horizon(həˈrīzən) if we don’t dedicate(ˈdediˌkāt) energy(ˈenərjē) and resources(riˈsôrs,riˈzôrs,ˈrēˈzôrs,ˈrēˌsôrs) to a universal(ˌyo͞onəˈvərsəl) vaccine(vakˈsēn).

Influenza pandemics occur(əˈkər) when a novel(ˈnävəl) animal(ˈanəməl) flu virus(ˈvīrəs) acquires(əˈkwī(ə)r) the ability to infect(inˈfekt) humans and they, in turn, transmit it to other humans. The 1918-19 Spanish(ˈspaniSH) flu epidemic(ˌepiˈdemik) (which despite(diˈspīt) the name may have originated(əˈrijəˌnāt) in the American Midwest(ˈmidˈwest)) killed 50 million to 100 million around the globe(glōb). Accounts at the time described people falling ill(il) in the morning and dying that night.

Given the century(ˈsenCH(ə)rē) of medical progress since then, one might conclude(kənˈklo͞od) that we are far better prepared today to deal with such a worldwide(ˈwərldˈwīd) catastrophe(kəˈtastrəfē). Unfortunately(ˌənˈfôrCHənətlē), the opposite(ˈäpəzit) is true.

The world has about four times the number of inhabitants(inˈhabitnt) it did in 1918, including hundreds of millions of people, poultry(ˈpōltrē) and pigs living close together. This provides a potent(ˈpōtnt) biologic(ˌbīōˈläjik) mixing bowl(bōl) and natural(ˈnaCHərəl) influenza(ˌinflo͞oˈenzə) virus(ˈvīrəs) mutation(myo͞oˈtāSHən) factory. What’s more, nearly any point on the planet(ˈplanit) is accessible(akˈsesəbəl) to any other point within hours, and there are more than a billion international border crossings each year. The virus will spread(spred) rapidly(ˈrapid).

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/opinion/flu-pandemic-universal-vaccine.html