How will this game end?

How will this game end?

By Derek Sivers

Imagine(iˈmajən) I announce(əˈnouns) I am going to sell a $100 bill by auction(ˈôkSHən), and the bidding(ˈbidiNG) starts at only $1.

The only rule(ro͞ol) of the game is this: If you are the 2nd-highest bidder, you still have to pay what you bid, but you don’t get the $100 bill.

Of course I get some bids for $1, $2, $3. Why not? Hey - a chance(CHans) to get $100 for $3!

The bids keep coming in. By $51 I’m happy - I’m going to profit(ˈpräfit) now.

Once they get to $90, there’s less enthusiasm(enˈTHo͞ozēˌazəm), but reason to stay in.

Once they get to $99, though, the person offering $98 thinks, “Uh oh. The other person isn’t backing down,” and raises(rāz) their bid to $100 so as not to be 2nd-lowest and lose the entire(enˈtīr) $98.

But now the person offering $99 raises their bid to $101. Better to lose only $1 than $99, right?

Soon they’re offering $110, $120, $150. This game could go on forever.

The real problem(ˈpräbləm): not thinking it through in advance.

When the game starts, it’s easy to think short-term and say, “Ooh! Good deal!”

Then when it’s too late, you slowly realize(ˈrē(ə)ˌlīz), ”Uh-oh(ˈə ˌō). What have I done?”

A lot of people get into life situations like this.

The entrepreneur(-ˈnər,ˌäntrəprəˈno͝or) who borrows(ˈbärō,ˈbôrō) a lot of money to test an idea(īˈdēə).

The homeowner who bought a house at the top end of their budget(ˈbəjit).

The romantic(rōˈmantik,rə-) who gets into a relationship with someone who is already in a relationship.

You can hear them whining about how they’re so in debt(det), or their sweetheart is cheating.

Oops(o͝ops,o͞ops)! Didn’t think that one through, huh(hə)?

The game was clearly rigged(rig) against them, so the smart choice(CHois) is to not play that game at all. We should always ask, “How will this game end?”

It’s hard to think through the long-term implications(ˌimpliˈkāSHən) of everything we’re doing now.

It’s hard, but it’s worth the effort(ˈefərt). I’m just posting this here as a reminder(riˈmīndər) to myself, too.